Sample data walkthrough
Northwind Market does not exist. Everything below it was computed by the same engine a real connection uses — including the cohort it refuses to forecast.
We never receive a user identifier. What we touch →
- · Two reporting endpoints: your event names, and daily counts of distinct users. Amplitude does the counting.
- · We never call the export endpoint, so no event stream and no user identifier reaches us.
- · Your keys are used for those requests and not written down. Close the tab and nothing is left.
- · Nothing is written back to your project. Amplitude has no read-only key, so that is a property of what we call rather than of the credential — your own API logs show every request we make.
- · Full detail, including what we have not got yet
What your data needs for this to work →
- 14 days of history
- The floor. Below it we refuse rather than fit a trend to a fortnight of noise.
- 28 days to be scored
- Below this we can forecast but cannot hold days back to check ourselves, so you get a forecast without evidence.
- 42 days
- Where we stop labelling your history as thin. A presentation threshold, not a statistical one — see below.
- ~70 users a day, per cohort
- About 500 a week. Below it a rate swings on one or two people and carries no information.
The one that gets misread: 70 a day is per cohort, not per company. A product with 40,000 monthly users split into three large cohorts clears it comfortably; the same product cut into thirty cohorts does not. The constraint is how finely you slice, which is why we cap breakdowns at two properties.
What extra history does and does not buy. It does not make the range narrower. The trend is fitted on the last three weeks, so the width is set by how noisy those three weeks were — ninety days of history gives the same width as twenty-one. What more history buys is more days we can hold back and check ourselves against, which makes the confidence figure better evidenced rather than the forecast more precise. We ask for ninety days for that reason, and it has never been a requirement.
Any cohort that misses one of these is shown with the check it missed and no forecast, rather than a number we would not defend.
Walk the whole flow on a company that does not exist. No key, no export, nothing sent anywhere.