Forecast Accuracy
We re-ran the same model at past cutoffs and compared what it predicted to what actually happened. Two different questions, answered separately: did we call the direction right, and was the range we gave honest. Coverage answers the second — it is not an accuracy score.
Actuals inside p10–p90 (target 80%)
Avg |actual − predicted p50|
We said it would fall, and it fell
Predicted-vs-actual data points
Calibrated. Reality landed inside Shadow's stated confidence band 83% of the time — within tolerance of the 80% target. The bands mean what they say.
Measured on demo fixtures, not live telemetry. These segments are generated series, so this page proves the backtest harness and the band arithmetic are sound — not that the model predicts your product well. That claim only holds once it runs on your data.