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Yelp (Demo Mode) · Consumer Marketplace

New restaurants joining Yelp are producing fewer reviews in their first 14 days, threatening local marketplace liquidity.

Executive Summary

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Cost of inaction · 30 days

~0fewer reviews

2 of 4 active segments are on a high-risk trajectory over the next 14 days — if nothing changes.

Backtested · 83% calibrated

Largest projected loss · Early Review Drop-off

First Review Rate · 41% → 36.5%

rendering forecast…

Focus firstEarly Review Drop-off (largest projected loss).

Segments Forecast

of 6 discovered · 2 below signal threshold

High Projected Risk

Risk 70+ and decline probability 60%+

Earliest Risk Window

7 days

First projected escalation

Data Coverage

92 days

Yelp (Demo Mode)

Top Projected Risk Segments

Ranked by risk score and decline probability. Click a segment for the full analysis and the audit trail.

4 active simulations

Risk by horizon

Risk score per cohort at each forecast horizon, worst 30-day first. 80+ critical · 60–79 high · 35–59 moderate · under 35 low.

7d	14d	30d
90	97	100
66	71	77
61	66	72
14	11	8

Early Review Drop-off

CRITICALRISK 97

Consumers on iOS in NYC are leaving fewer first reviews on newly listed restaurants. The simulation projects the first-review rate to keep declining over the next 14 days, driven by verification gating on new listings and added steps in the iOS review-submit flow.

iOSNYCNew ListingsFirst Review Rate

Cost of inaction · 30d

~18,770 fewer reviews

41%36.5%worst 33.1%95%decline probability

Web Activation Stall

HIGH RISKRISK 71

Web consumers in NYC convert to a first review at a lower rate than mobile, and the trajectory is drifting down. No mobile-web re-engagement path means consumers who view but don't review a new listing rarely return.

WebNYCNew ListingsFirst Review Rate

Cost of inaction · 30d

~1,676 fewer reviews

26%24.8%worst 23.1%81%decline probability

Android Re-engagement Decay

HIGH RISKRISK 66

First-review rate for new LA listings is softening on Android, where reduced notification delivery on Android 14+ is weakening the consumer re-engagement loop that historically prompted early reviews.

AndroidLANew ListingsFirst Review Rate

Cost of inaction · 30d

~1,407 fewer reviews

35%33.6%worst 30.9%76%decline probability

Supply-Side Resilience

RISK 11

Review receipt on established listings in top metros is stable to slightly improving. This cohort acts as a stabilizing force on marketplace liquidity and shows no near-term decline risk.

Cross-PlatformTop MetroEstablishedReview Receipt Rate

Cost of inaction · 30d

~0 fewer reviews

89%89.6%worst 88.5%25%decline probability