What-If Scenarios
Coming SoonTest counterfactual interventions against live simulations. Ask Shadow "what would happen if…" and receive projected outcomes with full confidence bounds — before making any changes to production.
Example Scenarios
Based on the current Revolut demo simulation, here are scenarios you could test:
What happens to activation if we drop the extra confirmation step before first card provisioning for new iOS users in the UK?
This scenario will be available in the next release
Model the recovery if Android 14+ notification delivery returns to prior levels, restoring the first-transaction nudge in the EEA.
This scenario will be available in the next release
Simulate nudging new Metal users toward a first stock or crypto buy within 30 days of activation.
This scenario will be available in the next release
What if users who arrive via a funded referral skip one KYC step? Simulate the effect on first-deposit conversion.
This scenario will be available in the next release
How What-If Works
Counterfactual Branching
Fork any active simulation at a specific point in time and apply a hypothetical change. Shadow computes the divergent trajectory using the same statistical models.
Side-by-Side Comparison
Compare the baseline projection against one or more what-if scenarios. See divergence points, confidence intervals, and net impact in a unified view.
Traceable To A Layer
L1 bounds what the system makes possible, L2 computes the divergent trajectory. L3 explains the result in words when you ask — it never decides the outcome. Every scenario shows which layer produced what.
Explicit Uncertainty
Every scenario includes confidence bounds. If a what-if introduces too much uncertainty, Shadow flags it as SPECULATIVE rather than presenting false precision.